The blue revolution

Opportunities and Challenges

Over the last three decades the aquatic systems of the globe have undergone a rapid transition. The proportion of global stocks classed by the FAO as over-exploited, depleted or recovering grew from 10% of the total in the mid-1970s to an alarming 25% by the early 1990s, and has levelled off since then. But only a tiny sliver of that is recovering. And fishing grounds that are “fully exploited” (ie, producing catches that are already at or very close to their maximum sustainable production limit) have risen to around 50% of the total, from the mid-40s ten years ago; much of this is teetering on the edge of over-exploitation. (Economist, June 2005)

As people get richer, they eat more fish. Worldwide per capita fish consumption nearly doubled from about 8 kilograms (kg) in the early 1950s to about 15.8 kg in 1999. To compound matters, rapidly growing populations increase the gap between supply and demand for food, threatening food security in many countries. World total demand for fish and fishery products is projected to expand by almost 50 million tonnes, from 133 million tonnes in 1999/2001 to 183 million tonnes by 2015 (FAO). The aquaculture industry has the greatest potential to bridge this gap as capture fisheries decline.

References are frequently made to a "Blue Revolution" being analogous to the green revolution. The green revolution provided additional food to developing countries through dramatic increases in crop production, enabled by genetic improvements in cereal grains, increased mechanization, improved pest control and soil fertility.

With responsible water use and aquaculture development, similar kinds of things are happening in freshwater and marine environments. While the capture fishery declines, aquaculture production has increased.

According to FAO statistics, the contribution of aquaculture to global supplies of fish, crustaceans and molluscs continues to grow, increasing from 3.9 percent of total production by weight in 1970 to 29.9 percent in 2002. Aquaculture continues to grow more rapidly than all other animal food-producing sectors. Worldwide, the sector has grown at an average rate of 8.9 percent per year since 1970, compared with only 1.2 percent for capture fisheries and 2.8 percent for terrestrial farmed meat-production systems over the same period. Production from aquaculture has greatly outpaced population growth, with the world average per capita supply from aquaculture increasing from 0.7 kg in 1970 to 6.4 kg in 2002, representing an average annual growth rate of 7.2 percent, based largely on China-reported growth. (FAO State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture (SOFIA) 2004)

Further information for other areas is available (e.g. British Columbia, India, Australia, Norway, and China). The effects of small scale aquaculture development can often most often be felt in developing countries.

Recent FAO medium term projections to the years 2010 and 2015 anticipate that the world should not have to face any shortage of fish supplies in the next three decades and the impact on prices will be minimal. In concrete terms, this means that per capita supplies will be maintained, and are even likely to grow. Supplies will increase substantially thanks to sustainable aquaculture development combined with sustained capture fisheries production, mainly from the oceans.

Certainly the green revolution was not without mistakes and unforseen consequences which continue to be addressed today. Gordon Conway, the respected scientist and past president of the Rockefeller Foundation , calls for the next of the green revolution (doubly green) which encompasses conservation as well as productivity.

Similarly, The global expansion of aquaculture has raised many critics with concerns about social and environmental consequences. However the critics of aquaculture do not often consider that modern aquaculture is at an early stage of development (The Economist). However, there is no doubt that responsible aquaculture practices are required and that unsustainable aquaculture development, like unsustainable agriculture development, could exacerbate current environmental problems and create new ones.

Proponents of an ecological aquaculture approach believe that the aquaculture industry will never grow to its full potential unless its practices and produces positive impacts on the environment and society. Growing evidence suggests that aquaculture has the potential to become a sustainable practice that can supplement capture fisheries and significantly contribute to feeding the world’s growing population. No one should be more more sensitive to water quality and environmental integrity than the aquaculturist who depends on his or her stocks thriving there, thus the industry is a natural ally of those who want cleaner water. Recently, governments and industry have made efforts to curb unsustainable aquaculture activities. Steady incremental progress in cleaning up the industry's early problems will continue, because it makes good environmental and business sense to do so.

The Blue Revolution Consulting Group is committed to ensuring that the expansion of aquaculture be built on sustainable practices and that further developments avoid environmental and social problems while providing economic success to coastal and rural communities.